Video: Pinkbike's Predictions for 2021

 The only forms of media left are for Taj to make some cartoons, or the PB staff a capella group recording a song about the same 2021 predictions

 oof.mp3

 Desperate times...

 Oh come on, this gives equal chance to students, office workers, labourers and dentists alike to waste some time in their favourite format!

 @nhlevi: im wasting time in physics right now!

 next year will all be about the weight savings of raw carbon frames vs the strength benefits of polymer based continuous flow paints protecting carbon frames making them 43 x stronger..... 2022.... lawsuit about said 43 x stronger frames....

 I predict that Pinkbike will continue to release product teasers, and then a full review the next day.

 @seraph: And team roster announcements one day with a shredit to immediately follow.

 Fool me once, fool me twice, yada yada yada

 @OpeSorryAbootThat: what makes you think we don’t already have an a Cappella group?

 @AJisTerrible: If you would actually pay attention in your Physics class, we might have some more innovation to read about in ten years! Take one for the team!

 I would really like to see reliability standards enter the MTB space. How about all components are guaranteed for their first 1000 miles? Oh, not everyone uses their bike the same? good, build extra reliable components.

In one year (1000 miles) from a brand new bike I have had to replace out of necessity
Both guide brakes
GX Derailleur
Fox DPX2 - damper rebuild
2 GX chains
I'm 170lbs, a bike mech and service my bike before every ride, visit bike parks twice a year. I should not be burning through parts so fast

 @thunder13: STOP RUNNING INTO EVERYTHING ON THE TRAIL...

 @stiingya: Ha, No crashes this year, just wear n tear.

And I'm not going to NOT SEND

 @thunder13: not at all unusual to be having issues with Fox suspension and SRAM drivetrain and brakes. You’ll notice the rather crazy service intervals and number of special tools/techniques required for each.

 @Forest-Gnome That someone downvoted this makes me shake my head in despair.

 @Chuckolicious: it was probably Nukeproof...

 Totally agree. Hopefully people learn contentment and try out things that make more of a difference than the purchase of a new complete bike. Tires come to mind. What a difference they make. If a majority held onto their bike for the next 5 years, I am sure that the supply/demand would cause the prices of complete bikes to drop, enabling less wealthy and newer riders from various backgrounds to get into the sport.

 My bike was amazing when I bought it a couple years ago. Surprisingly, it was amazing yesterday. Weird

 @Baller7756: You don't see how you can do as you do, yet still appreciate the merit of his message? Really? Sheesh!

 @Chuckolicious: I think I can. Maybe it was just the "Covid teach us something lead in" that "triggered" me. I dont want to give this thing any more attention and credit than its already gotten. I cant see any good to come of this and our reactions to it.

 @Baller7756: do you ride a yeti?

 @JSTootell: Not possible. Bikes automatically become sh*t after 6 months of ownership.

 @leviatanouroboro: Current stable of 2 bikes... Transition Spur and Yeti SB165.

 With sweet tech like anglesets and offset bushings, people can really get a different feel for a small chunk of change. I know I’ll be trying and shoe set to refresh my rig this year!

 @bh406: Just did exactly that. Diamondback Release 3 with the 150 Pike. RS has 2020 internals, both damper and spring, to upgrade Pike, as well as increase to allowed 160mm. Got a 1deg headset to match it. Likely 2-3 more full seasons on that thing now!

 Watch it buddy, there might be a few failed actors here living with their mothers who'll take offense to what you said. And they have spears. And horns. And make-up.

 @uphill-blues: Downvotes agree

 Dear God I hope so. These brands have not really been all that good to customers.

 If the big companies like SRAM or Shimano are struggling to keep pace with production what makes you think all these smaller companies, with much less leverage and production capacity are going to be able to even keep up with their current production, let alone expand into the OEM market?

 microSHIFT is positioned well to take over a percentage of the S vs S drivetrain battle. My prediction is that many will go to 1x10 speed in 2021. No, not being sarcastic or joking. The Advent X really is that good.

 @ridealongside: Completely agree with this! Was looking to go MicroShift on a couple of my bikes, but the dreaded SOLD-OUT has prevented me. I'm hoping to eventually go to a 1x9 setup, so maybe I'll look at Box 3 Prime 9. Still deciding...

 Yup. I'm currently rocking a TRP shifter/derailleur with e13 Helix cassette and it's working as nice as any SRAM Eagle setup I've had. Hope to see more drivetrain choice this year for sure!

 @ridealongside: I got my hands on the Acolyte group for my son's bike. It's great and very inexpensive.

 I broke a lever in November - $29 to replace, but completely unavailable. So I bought a whole Deore M6100 lever for... $29. Quick bleed, and I'm good to go with levers that you only know are mismatched if you look down.

 IMO Hayes is already creeping into the market again. I really like the feel of my Hayes Dominion A4s and see more and more people running them over Sram/Shimano.

 @wcantwel: I have been on Hope for forever and a day, with Saints/XT's been sprinkled in here and there. That said, I do hear good things about the Hayes Dominions. Last set of Hayes I ran was an OG set back in 1998 or so (yes I am old)

 @ridealongside: Micro is insane, my freind has the og advent on his bike, he hasnt serviced it in a year, and it still works perfect, im considering dropping my old deore for it

 @sino428: super good point. I think that customers are left to seek other options which may bolster opportunity for these brands. But you're right, maybe they got pushed to the back of the production line? Merely predictions!

 @club-roost: the opportunity would certainly be there for smaller companies to fill the void. I just think those smaller companies won’t be able to take advantage of it because they are most likely suffering from some of the same issues as the larger companies.

 @wcantwel: I love my Hayes Stroker Ace brakes on my dh bike. My only gripe on them is the inability to have them worked on at the bike park as the mechanics there don’t carry their service kits.

 But those lycra candids?!!?

 mmmmm idk Kazimers looking pretty good atm

 Agreed. My 11 year old is doing jobs for his grandparents and saving every dollar for his next rig because I told him that lots of riders will likely ditch their bikes this spring/summer for dirt cheap.

 this was my prediction in March & April 2020.

 The bubble has to burst, but I think the pop will be coming in about 2025 at this rate

 Hope so. I'll be due for a replacement in the next few years.

 Hmmm, not sure people are just going to “leave the sport” because COVID is over. I hope those people realize how sweet it is, see improvement to their mental/physical health and it continues to grow. Maybe instead of only riding in their backyard, they go on trips again but instead go on mtb trips. I’m a lame optimist though...

 Won't happen for a couple of years. First, Covid isn't going away right away. Second, people are going to let the bike sit in the garage for a year or two (or 10) before cleaning up. Third, the people who get out soon aren't going to be willing to sell their $600 bike they paid $1000 for, for the real used value of $300.

 @JSTootell: its a good thing demand is high, you can charge more for your used bike because there arent many out there and right now late summer or fall is the earliest ETA on a lot of bikes if you dont already have one on back order from a few months back.

 Most people aren't going to sell them right away if they "leave" the sport. They'll likely hang on to them for another year before cleaning the garage out.

 Don't forget the predictable dentist jokes. Which is really lame because being a dentist is not easy, imagine getting into people's mouths all day. We should be making jokes about hedge fund managers and the like.

 You've given greater understanding to your name: @DoubleCrownAddict I mistakenly thought it was in reference to a bike component.

 Yeah and 20mm axles will make a comeback because they allow the fork to be made lighter - the axle is stiffer so they can reduce the stiffness of the lowers casting and maintain the same stiffness at a lower weight.

 If the new Session doesn't look like a Session, PB will implode. I'm sure of it.

 i hope to fck you're wrong

 @zeckgx After 10+ years, I recently left the Front Range (was SW Denver near Ruby Hill) and now in Bentonville. Thankfully I can ride to the trail head from my garage. Lots of riders here and out of towners, but thankfully the vast majority of trails within the great Northwest Arkansas area are built and maintained with MTB and MTB traffic growth in mind. Plenty of single track , flow/jumps, etc. Refreshing.

 In Southern California we have an adventure pass we have to pay for for accessing the national forests. $20 a year. I’m fine paying a fee like that especially if it means better amenities at the trailheads. Maybe they can add a few parking spots to handle the crowd.

 You sir won my vote!!!!!!

 Agreed.

 Why

 @Greendog: Many reasons. A saint crankset with a direct mount chainring would be great.

 Why don't downhill bikes have gearboxes??? Hey rid of that ugly pos rear derailleur.

 Why do you think there are no bikes to buy? And there is a 6 month lag time?

 Bike companies give discounts, better terms and free shipping to shops that order huge preseason orders. So most of the bikes for the year (for higher volume shops) showed up before covid took hold. And after the big preseason order is sold, the larger shops (that order more bikes and make preseason commitment) get preference for remaining bikes and smartly gobbled them up. So the small shops are pretty screwed.

 Whoops, I misunderstood and thought you were referring to how sales have been strong while supply is now low

 Still kind of applies though

 Short seat tube is the next step. +200mm droppers on every frame size.

 I think it’ll all be dialed back a bit. I think we hit the sweet spot already and don’t realize it. I don’t want a trail bike with 63 degree head angle!

 I all about adjustable geo now and for the next couple years.

 @SintraFreeride: And tall riders will be unable to run seats at a height that allows them to pedal properly (already a problem with many of the cool new-skool low-standover bikes...)

 @MillerReid: You can say that again. After riding a 64 degree HA bike for just over a year (as a trail bike) I have sold it and gone for something with a bit of a steeper HA again. So much more versatile for the trails I have in my backyard.

 @Linc: That won't be a problem because we will have 250mm dropper posts soon enough.

 @SintraFreeride: The longer dropper posts get the more seat tube you need to insert them into so there is a limit. I recon we will start seeing more frames come out with integrated droppers that allow the user to set how far they extend out the frame and then cut the excess post away. It's the way you will get the most travel for any given frame.

 I predict the winners of Advent Calendar 2020 will still be waiting for their prizes in December 2021.

 IDK... about the worst before better thought. This has to be worst... unexpected high demand and reduced production capacity.

From here, things will begin to balance out. Production will be restored, and demand will drop for a couple reasons (1) new riders have bikes now (2) new riders wont have time or interest in riding and move on... dumping their bikes on the used market.

Good thought on the bike services focus... but again non committed riders really don't have their bikes serviced or maintained. That additional cost is beyond what they are willing to commit to the bike/sport.

More trails would be amazing! This is the single most impactful aspect limiting MTB proliferation.

 I only read the comments, not the articles, so hopefully that's the case.

 Hahahaha! Ride on!!!

 "I predict Sram will come out with a 13 speed system, 10-54T cassette included"

...but the second largest sprocket will still be 42t.

 Let's hope not. 10 properly spaced gears on a rear cassette makes more sense than adding more unsprung weight to the rear wheel. Maybe all the big names can come together and standardize a gearbox drivetrain.

 @boozed: lol!

 @brassinne: Utopia is a nice place to visit...in your dreams lol

 @SintraFreeride: Oui, j'suis au courant. Lol

 @brassinne: Your idea is good but I don't see the marketing departments allowing the engineers do that!

 38 and Zeb have 180 dude, you do not need dual crown on an Enduro bike, it makes zero sense.

 @Imabigboy82: You're right, and you have clearly considered every possible scenario out there. Great work.

 You heard of the Slayer? Oh sorry, I guess it's considered a free ride bike...

 @Imabigboy82: What about a dual crown fork makes it so awful for climbing, mind to explain?

 @Arierep: (generally) long travel for plenty of fork bob, extra weight, and bonus knee-knockers just for fun. Let's flip this around. Can you explain how a dual crown could be anything but worse for climbing, all else being equal?

 @Imabigboy82: a dual crown makes plenty of sense for big boy riders, would think you might have thought about that before you commented lol. I have the 38 in 180 on my Enduro but I would ditch it in a second for a dual crown 180 for the added rigidity of the second crown. I already blew out the CSU on my 38, flexes way too much. Not sure how much that has to do with Fox not understanding how to design a proper press-fit and my completely unathletic banzai riding style, but the 38 definitely flexes a lot when pushed like you might on a dh bike with a dual crown.

 Spesh enduro rated for 180 double crowns I think. Plus the bigger travel evils have (or had) the option as a stock build.
I think you would be better off going the other way, modifying a DH bike with a dropper and different gearing. Only certain frames will be suitable for this due to the seat tube I guess

 @BiNARYBiKE: In the old days when size large bikes had a reach under 400 mm you would smoke your knees on the crown when pedaling out of the saddle (just like you would also knee the stem and your shifters). Not an issue on today's bikes. Fork bob is no different on a 180 dual crown or a 180 single crown (but one will creak and one won't!). Only catch will be on really tight switchbacks, but if you can ride them on a 63 degree single crown, you can ride them on a dual crown. So dual crown is basically equal on the climbs, and so much better on the descents.

 You mean something like the 2016 Specialized Enduro FSR Expert EVO 650b ?
www.pinkbike.com/photo/15905686

 @rip8569: Yeah, that's more what I mean. Not so much putting a downhill fork on an enduro bike, but a dual crown fork version of like the 38 or something like that.

 2007 already did that - https://www.pinkbike.com/photo/13811700/

 Me too! the weight penalty would be negligible and the extra air volume can make for a better riding fork. And I have had every CSU creak that I've ridden in the last 5 years...

 @Imabigboy82: "I dont understand why anyone ..." Thank god the bike industry isn't restricted to what you understand.

 @rip8569: My buddy runs an MRP Bartlett on his Evolink 158 and absolutely loves it. He's a larger guy and says it's a noticeable difference between that and his old 36. He also climbs everywhere on that thing and doesn't seem to have much issue. It's 190mm but the axle-to-crown is similar to a 170mm single crown if I recall correctly.

I on the other hand am not that big, and I'm perfectly happy with my 180mm Lyrik.

 @GeorgeHayduke: Why would it be restricted, it was just a question. I dont get it, to my eyes there is good reason you dont see brands offering it but you carry on thinking you know better dude, great jarb!

 @Imabigboy82: Wrong. Single crown forks with a ton of travel have a ton of flex.That can be fixed with a double crown.

 @Imabigboy82: The reason we don't see it is because mtbiking is obsessed with weight! This is why we see 180mm single crown forks under 2kg with barely a drop of oil in them that require servicing every 2 days! If we actually cared and focused on performance we'd all be running dual crown forks with more oil!

 @SintraFreeride: who would have thought you'd want less weight for pedalling up hill eh, crazy people eh, joker

 @Imabigboy82: I don't! Certainly not at the cost of performance! You could always go full carbon rigid bike 6kg bike if you like, I'll stick to my +200mm travel dual crown 18kg trail bike, haha.

 @Imabigboy82: I have a 20 (sub 20?) pound XC bike if going uphill is my goal. But when I am pointed DH, I want a bike that won't break under me, which is my 40ish pound bike.

But at 145 pounds, I can get away with single crown. But I can see others desires for a dual crown.

 @jonbath: not to mention if you are using that DC fork as intended on the way down you should probably be wearing knee pads which would help with the knee knocks on the way up.

 Yeah I love my 190 boxxer on my enduro bike, pedals amazing. It is an ebike though. I wouldn't want a flexy single crown fork which will develop a creaky CSU.

 @OldDert: If you need knee pads so you don't hit your fork I suggest sizing up! Who is still running reach under 400mm?

 @SintraFreeride: my megatrail is 490 and my Honzo ESD is 525, neither have a dual crown but I’ve been considering it for the megatrail. Just thought I’d add another point to the conversation. Thanks for the suggestion anyway.

 I ran a boxxer on my enduro for a month or so, weighed about the same and even at 200mm had a shorter axle to crown than the 180mm Zeb I replaced it with. Over the 36 i took off, the difference in stiffness was huge, both from the legs and the direct mount stem, really feels a whole lot better. Climbing and general riding wasnt affected in the slightest, they don't bob or behave any differently than a regular fork and the increase in travel only ever gave positive effects. I'd have kept it on but i was a bit concerned about the thin carbon around the headtube, to be fair, the zeb is more comparable to the boxxer, than it was to the 36, so 38mm legs could be argued to make dual crowns less necessary.

 @pbuser2299: what about suspension performance, suppleness etc, did you notice a decrease in that switching from the Boxxer to the ZEB or just less stiffness?

 @Danzzz88: So this summer I was away and wrecked my bike, borrowed a mates geomotron with wc boxxers with fancy custom internals, that was my first introduction and they were amazing in every way, did 2 days of big trail riding with those on, aside from touching the bump stops on some switchbacks, there were no downsides, bike pedalled and climbed a lot better than mine did. Get my bike fixed, rode my 36s for a while, then the crowns started creaking, so while they were off for warranty I stuck the boxxer RCs off my old dh bike on my enduro, obviously these have a more basic motion control damper, bit heavier. The motion control damper struggles on small bumps, but still they generally felt a lot more solid than my 36s, without any ill effects from the dual crowns. After that i got some basic ebike spec zebs (they have a bigger crown that looks less likely to creak) because my 36s were out of warranty. Between the boxxers and the zebs, there's more to it than just saying one is better than the other, as i see it there are 3 ways your bike can flex.... 1) general front end stiffness, ie keeping your bars perpendicular to your wheel, flex from the steerer, stem, crown, etc. 2) directional stiffness, ie bars pointing inline with the front wheel, flex from the legs, crown, axle and 3) leg flex front to back, ie from the stanchions flexing, bushing play, lower legs, most of which causes the suspension to bind up to some degree. In the case of 1, the boxxers are in a different league to the 36 and at least noticeably better than the zeb, its kind of obvious really given how much more structure the crowns provide to the stem and it makes things feel a lot more controlled on cambers, etc. In the case of 2, boxxers were a big improvement over the 36s, but I'd say the zebs were on a par, steering stiffness helping you track through rock gardens, etc. For 3, I think the zebs are better than the boxxers, there probably is more flex at the crown, but it feels like none of that is in the legs, so no matter how hard you smash them, they just don't bind up. Generally I'd say the zebs were the best of the lot, the dampers better than my boxxer rc and the 36s, personally i prefer it over the custom wc boxxer i used, but that wasnt set up for me.

 No need. WiggleCRC acquired german company Bike24 in 2017 already, so there you go.

 Id think GX stays cable and they move their X01 and XX1 to AXS only...

 @Imabigboy82: I could see this and I like it! Make GX as good as XX1 now and make XX1 and X01 AXS only.

 Call it GX if you want...really just need to get the cost down. Its just a shifter and derailleur... you really don't need those to be XX1, X01, or GX... it should just be AXS (wireless)... compatible with any cassette and crank combo.

 Serious question: why? GX is already way overpriced. Why would you want to pay much more just for wireless? What's the benefit for you?

 @fraserw: I have AXS on my Spur. I prefer it for ease of setup and adjustments. Having one less cable and a cleaner cockpit is nice too. IDK... maybe its in my mind, but the shifts seem more crisp and consistent as well.

 @fraserw: I suck at adjusting my rear mech and my bike's cable routing isn't great. And yes, I just want this for less $.

 @akoukov: This will solve your routing issue, but not your inability to adjust a rear mech. Still gotta get those limits right, which is the hardest part of any setup.

 @chuck-edward They only cost about tree fiddy

 also, longer, lower, and slacker!

 and red!

 But I thought parts were now 'optimised for compliance'!

 Yeah, poor timing. We didn't want to film over the holidays so the video didn't come out on the same day as the video

 Makes you wonder how much the sport will change tbh, DH racing to me is the most elite and exciting form of MTB. I really hope that this doesnt change but perhaps bikes do a little as they need to be able to sell what they ride etc.

 Depends on where you live. Near lift bike park, they make great sense as to not beat the crap our of your trail/enduro rig.

 @Imabigboy82: a few privateers have already been racing the DH WC on long travel enduro bikes

 @Imabigboy82: i think dh racing can stay the same and get crazier as bikes change because they dont have to sell em anymore.

 @Imabigboy82: Don't see a lot of people on 200cm long GS skis and 140 flex plug boots in the chairlift line either, here's hoping ski/bike are comparable business models in this regard

 @bman33: +1, and easier on the body in these circumstances.

 Don't make sense in the hurtin' ass place where you live perhaps...

 @Assclapp:

apples to oranges dude. better comparison would be all mountain skis (~105mm) to powder skis (115+mm).

There is still VERY MUCH a need for both to exist

 I love my DH bike and am sorry I waited so long to get a dedicated rig.

 Dh bikes make sence if you have the terrain and skills for one. but ya if your pedelling around boring xc networks than probably not. Either way I will keep riding DH bikes and laughing at enduro clowns who think they know about things they don't ride

 I mean, people have been saying that DH is the F1 of the biking world.. And just like luxury, expensive, sports cars, there will be a market and people will buy it. But DH will be mostly marketing for other types of MTB.

 @riccardoleumann:

I live in a town with 75+ "downhill" tracks. The only mountain bike that I own is a DH bike. Sure, you can ride those tracks on an enduro bike, but you're not really optimized for the terrain if you choose to do so. It's like bringing out your 100mm all mountain skis on a 50cm powder day. Yes, you'll still slide down the still, but you won't be using the right tool for the job.

What you're saying may apply to most mtb locales around the world, but in certain places, DH bikes aren't fringe... They are simply the most fun & most appropriate way to navigate the trails.

 @f00bar:
A lot of long travel enduro bikes are really dh bikes with single crown forks, and a little bit less travel.

 They make perfect sense for lift assisted trails;
Same as dh skis, powder skis etc;

Does it cost money? Sure it does, so do ski’s;
Does it bring ultimate fun - yes, plowing down on dh bike is very unique joy