Let's put aside all the talk of parts shortages, sold out everything, and focus on what's likely coming down the pipeline in the near and not-so-near future. Sure, it might be a little trickier to purchase the bike of your dreams right now, but that doesn't mean companies have paused development – if anything, they're busy trying to figure out exactly how many new widgets to order for 2023 and 2024, an especially challenging task given the current situation.
New standards? More mullets? 13-speed drivetrains? It's time for another look into the crystal ball to try and figure out what trends are going to stick, and which ones will fade away.
More Mixed-Wheel Bikes Mixed wheel bikes have existed since the early days of the sport, but 2019 saw the concept come back to life on both the World Cup downhill and Enduro World Series circuits. In some instances, it seemed to act like a way to justify running a 29” front wheel without losing any street cred after talking smack about the bigger wheel size (*cough* Bruni *cough*), while in other cases it allowed smaller riders to retain tire-to-tuchus clearance and still have at least one 29” wheel.
Proponents of the concept pushed it as a best-of-both worlds type scenario, some magical combination of wheel diameters that made everthing else pale in comparison. That's obviously not the case, but it does look like the mixed wheel option is going to have a longer shelf life than plus size tires did...
Three years after the mixed wheel re-animation, where does it fit into the mix? Well, in the downhill world it's become a fairly common option. The new Trek Session, Commencal Supreme DH, Santa Cruz V10, Specialized Demo, and Canyon Sender all have a mixed wheel option, to name a few.
It's also become a fairly common sight on eMTBs, largely because a smaller rear wheel makes it a lot easier to keep the chainstays to a manageable length, something that can be a challenge when you're also trying to have room for a motor and a battery.
What about on bikes with less travel? Mixed wheel bikes popping up with increasing regularity, although in many cases its being done to replace a 27.5" model. YT's new Capra comes to mind. That way companies can spec the same fork and front wheel on more models, which reduces the number of different products they need to order.
My crystal ball says that's not going to change
too dramatically in the future either. Yes, there will be plenty of mixed wheel bikes hitting the market in the coming months, typically with 150mm or more rear travel, but it's not going to be anything like the year that bike companies were tripping over each other to switch every model over to 29" wheels. If anything, there will be fewer 27.5” bikes released, with mixed wheel setups taking their place in companies' lineups.
High Pivot Hype Continues If the mixed wheel trend is simmering, the kettle of high pivot hype is at a rolling boil. It's almost harder to name a company that's
not working on a high pivot enduro or downhill bike of some kind, if they haven't released one already. Trek joined the party earlier this year with the new Session, and images recently surfaced of what looks like an idler pulley on a Specialized Demo.
Prototypes from Devinci, Norco, GT, and Cannondale have all been spotted over the last few months, so it's not a stretch to expect this summer and fall to have a bumper crop of idler-equipped machines.
What's fueling the high pivot fire? Well, some of it may be a fear of being left behind – if high pivot bikes are getting podiums and 'regular' bikes aren't, might as well stick on an idler and see what happens. There's obviously more to it than that, though. High pivot designs create a more rearward axle path, which in turn can make it easier to maintain speed in rough terrain. We've seen several different way of approaching this design – some bikes have higher main pivots than others, some use a single pivot layout, some use a Horst Link – but at the end of the day the goal remains the same: to create a bike that doesn't get hung up on obstacles and has minimal pedal kickback for a smooth, controlled ride.
Similar to the mixed wheel trend, I'd expect the high pivot designs to remain on gravity-focused bikes. That's partially because of the inherent drag that comes with adding another pulley wheel onto a drivetrain. That extra friction isn't that big of a deal if your focus is on having the best run possible when gravity takes over, but it's more of an issue if you're heading out for a multi-hour pedal fest. There's also the added weight that comes from the design – those grams are harder to swallow when they're on a lighter XC or trail bike.
eMTB Evolution - Lighter & Less Powerful vs Bigger, Full Power Options At this point pretty much every large company has at least a few e-bikes in their lineup, which means that the smaller brands are up next. I wouldn't waste too much time shedding tears over the fact that your favorite 'core' brand is sipping the e-Kool Aid either – bike sales may be booming, but there's no guarantee it'll last, so it makes sense for companies to diversify with at least one electric option.
Are non-motorized bikes going to go the way of the dodo? Despite the claims of ferverent e-acolytes to the contrary, the answer is a resounding “no.” Look at it this way – people still willingly choose running as their preferred means of outdoor recreation, and just think of how many easier ways there are to get around. Sure, some riders may fully cross over to e-bikes, but I see it more as a supplement to the sport rather than something that'll completely take over. Mountain biking is already expensive, and when you add a motor and battery it starts to get even less attainable, especially for people who aren't dedicated enthusiasts.
Returning to the eMTB trends, I think we'll start to see a split, with lighter less powerful bikes emerging on one side, and full power, extra-beefy machines on the other. Personally, I'd choose a full power, long travel machine over a lighter, less powerful one, but we'll have to see how Specialized's Kenevo SL does compared to their Levo to really see what the market wants. I do think that the lighter eMTB concept makes sense for shorter travel trail bikes, something like the Orbea Rise, where it can deliver a much more 'normal' feel while allowing riders to go further, faster.
We'll have to see where battery technology end up – there's certainly plenty of research being done in that area by car and electronics manufacturers. Maybe someday it won't be necessary to choose between light and not-so-powerful or heavy and very powerful, but that looks to be the reality for the near future.
Drivetrains – More Electronics, New Designs Now that SRAM and Shimano both offer a full range of 12-speed drivetains, I don't think we're going to see any 13-speed drivetrains any time soon from either company, so those pitchforks can stay in the shed for now. There also doesn't seem to be much news coming from the gearbox world, so I think the idea of a wide range gearbox that uses a trigger shifter and works under load is going to remain a pipedream for the near future.
What's much more likely is that Shimano will enter the wireless world, a prediction that's bolstered by the patents they were granted earlier this year. Plus, their Di2 groupsets are overdue for an update, and it'd be odd if the next generation kept its wires, especially considering that SRAM has already trickled down their wireless drivetrain down to the GX level.
Speaking of SRAM, it looks like they have something up their sleeve too, likely tied to the introduction of that Universal Derailleur Hanger. Once again, this speculation is fueled by patent images, and there's no clear timeline as to when we might see something new.
Which Z1 fork are you referring too, the OG from 97?
Or maybe the Z150 from 2004,
Or do you mean the newest Fox version of the Z1, that is essentially a Fox 36 Rhythm?
10 years ago all that “99% of us” needed was 9spd, 26” Crossmaxxs, 69* HTA’s, with 400mm reach on a medium bike.
Times change, things are awesome right now, and bikes have never been better.
The cool thing about progress, is you get some trickle down, and makes things more accessible.
My current 12spd, modern bike is amazing, at climbing, descending, JRA, jumping, pumping, and letting me escape. My fork hasnt needed repair, I haven’t broken a chain, my brakes modulate so well it’s astonishing, tires grip like a rapid pit bull, and I’ve managed to keep a set of wheels for an entire season. Progress is a great thing, good things tend to come from progress.
And If I remember correctly both of the Big S’s still make 10, and 11 spd stuff, Fox makes the Marzo line, and you can still find NOS Kenda Blue grooves, and Nevegals….and I honestly mean no Judgement at all
Be good to one another out there
It’s worth noting, that its new stuff, 12spd, Z1, etc….and there were those 10 years ago, telling people all that “we” need is 26” wheels, blah, blah, blah.
It’s hard to remember just how we good we have it, and its all based on new stuff, and progression of tech, trails, and thinking.
Keep pushing that 9spd, much respect
I can afford any bike i want but the mid value bikes are the best for sure.
Progression of range % has been amazing but don't need too many gears to cover it.
I had a 45lb Norco 6, with the delightful Blue Groove/Nevegal combo. I pedalled that up many a hill in search of silly elevated wood structures, and dead sailors to flat!
Do you really ride ALOT? Because if so, I would be more worried about smaching RD than replacing cables.
I’m with you on 9/10 speed. My next bike will probably “downgrade” to box or microshift straight away and sell the “good” stuff. There’s just so many advantages- chain line, running costs, dirt tolerance, weight… and you’re not tied to a semi-proprietary freehub “standard” that allows shramano to avoid competition on cassettes.
I do worry about those shifts under load that you mentioned though. Hopefully the market inspires shimano to do a 10 speed hg+ cassette so that’s an option. Linkglide suggests they’re considering it already.
I can't imagine the disasters awaiting the person who tries to create a reactive bike tire sealant, please make sure you get video....I think solid tires with no gas chamber are the future, 3d printing will allow them to make complex internal shapes not possible in today's moulding and vulcanisation process.
On the cranks, Hope 30mm BB seems to be overspecced for a modern MTB part - 10,000 km down and they're just fine & have beaten all 24mm bearings I've ever used
I think High Pivot bikes are here to stay, but I don't see them becoming common on every bike, or every type of bike (dh, enduro, all-mountain, trail, xc, etc.) They have their pros and cons and they don't make a shorter travel bike feel very poppy or playful.
wheelbased.com/2021/05/26/brake-operating-apparatus-and-brake-system-by-shimano
you have no idea clearly about how good ebikes are being to mtb and peoples fitness.
In the last couple of years I've seen dozens & dozens of ebikes and to a man they are all ridden by middle aged fat blokes in running shorts & trainers.
Not seen any riding to the trails either but seen plenty on bike racks being driven there.
I’d really need that manual bike. How far can it go? And when is the bunny hop bike coming?
Second: lets take a second to look at the fact of this "fat" thing,
Fat person: wants to enjoy the dh mtb without all the slugging etc.
Person whos already fit: WhY YoU nEEd EbIkE, YOu LaZy
Fat Person: enjoying mtb so much hes getting on that bike almost daily and smashing out lap after lap.
Person whos already fit: i bike once or twice a week need to stay fit
Fat Person: still enjoying mtbing so much, does upgrades, now rides daily, has lost 25kg.
Person whos already fit: cheat day!! Login to PB to tell everyone ebikers suck.
the now skinnier(than before) person on ebike, MAN THIS SPORT IS SICK, decides to buy a Normal bike for Bike park - now has more money invested an loving it.
Now enjoying MTBing so much an has gotten alot fitter, bought a normal bike to use instead as is now fit"ish"
doesnt login to PB to be a dick about something they have no idea about.
Oh wait... thats me....
You clowns have no idea how good Ebikes are for MTB and human health for someone who wouldnt of got on a bike if it wasnt for the "E" part.
I think of it this way - what problem does the invention of the e bike solve? On one hand it enables an enthusiastic rider to get more out of his/her day, and this is how they are marketed to us. But in my opinion the reality is that mainly it enables bike manufacturers to target a larger market, i.e the unfit/less willing who have a bit of disposable income. It's that mismatch between how they are sold and how they are bought. It's modern 'convenience' sold as progression.
My old XO type 2 10 speed is still going strong too, and has never given me an issue... ever.
There is only a couple of times where I wished that the ratios were closer but that was on boring / mundane / average trails, where there was very little gradient change. Nothing like the usual trails for my heavy duty AM bike.
rotorbike.com/catalog/default/rotor/xc-mtb-marathon/1x13-mountain-groupset.html
New sub-industry will pop up: e-bike service and hacking to fix all the flawed designs
Even if costs were equal I'm not sure that I would want wireless for the added hassle (though a programmable shifter does seem cool).
That should be the topic of Pinkbike’s next Thought Experiment : The Post Apocalypse Bike Build. How would you spec a bike if you knew the end of the world was fast approaching?
We are supposed to keep quiet and like ebikes, but somehow wireless shifting is bad?
Headtube angle set to 67 degrees, Dropper post down? Tiny (expensive breakable) servos in headtube rotate some spacers and bam, headtube angle 63 degrees, ready to party.
New headtube standard (obviously) to accommodate the new headsets, which all start at $800.
Also, for some reason the change in headtube standards require new hub widths, 16x111 in the front (we'll call it boast) and 12x148, but with a different thread pitch than anything currently out there (maybe reverse M48 threaded).
(gearboxes can do one. Chains forever!)
But what that tells me is that they do sell and we'll see more e-mtbs in the future. To be honest, while i like my pedal bike, i could see the interest when you don't have easy uphills or lifts. They get 4-5x more downhill sessions than i do, no matter how fast I go up
Living in Indiana the most I could hope for here is to catch the BCSP bike festival and ride a demo or 2 if I'm lucky. Outside of that all you get is a ride around a parking lot before you decide on your purchase. We do have Cannondale Super Vs and maybe other models to rent not far from BCSP. The rest of our shops are in concrete jungles.
Hope is one provider (there are othsrs).
Pay a monthly fee. Use the bije till the kid outgrows it. Get sent the next size. Repeat.
My mates sons hope equipped bike is the nuts, actually a better spec than anything i own.
But if I had cashola it'd be a GG Shred Dogg all the way. I'm still loving my single pivot though.
yah not sure about the comments about not using hardest gears!!! I probably ride 12-20 most of the time and pop it up to 28 to do the fire road. i want selection to choose my speed going into jumps hops and downhill, probably the places we all drool to ride and for all the people that love going up hill, don't we all need to ride it like a single speed. get out of that saddle and attack it!!!, what i tell my 5 year old. explode, explode, explode!!!
Turns out we all ride different terrain, are different riders, of different abilities, with different bikes. I dont use my bottom 3 gears all that often, and I’m working to use the top 3 less, but I’m stoked that they’re there.
www.valeo.com/en/a-valeo-innovation-for-e-mobility-is-coming
Now, it's only missing the range of 100km, and increase max speed from 25km/h to 35ish km/h
I have one along the same lines: the sun will rise tomorrow, somewhere.
Way to stick your neck out on this one, PB.
And running's not even fun.
You sly bastard!
You edited the post, and my MX Patrol wheel comment right out!
I love it!
Tires with internal cross bracing to resist side squirm would be interesting to test. If cushcore is actually beneficial in this way, better to integrate it into the tire. Think bracing like shown in the cross section of the rims in the following link:
chromagbikes.com/collections/rims-wheels/products/rims-chromag-ba30
Or seeing as this is an Olympic year, the trickle-up of roady lycra and no knee-pads from XC to trail riding?
But surely if they’re longer (travel and in terms of wheel size) up front than in the back they’re more of a ‘short back n sides’ . Or perhaps a post punk new wave-y buoffant thing.
Discuss