12-Speed XTR, Devinci’s Return to DH, and a Santa Cruz eMTB? - Rumors from Eurobike 2017
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If you happened to have caught any of our Eurobike 2017 coverage, you already know that it wasn't exactly a riveting show full of new and exciting gear. No, she was a bit of a snoozer this time around, which is, sadly, becoming the norm as you'd have to have the marketing IQ of a gerbil to think that debuting an important product at a tradeshow is a good idea. We need more gerbils to make these shows exciting again but, in the meantime, they've turned out to be great opportunities to put one's ear to the proverbial carpeted show floor and pick up on rumors and whispers.
This edition of Levy's TMZ has some doozies, including a pretty solid rumor about the *possibility* of Shimano's next XTR group sporting twelve cogs. Will that or any of other the below rumors pan out? If they do, remember who told you first; if they don't, please don't remember where you read them.
Shimano's 12-Speed XTR Drivetrain is Coming
Well, we all know this one is coming, don't we? Of course, but I finally heard some solid whisperings from a number of different sources confirming not just a 12-speed XTR drivetrain from Shimano, but also a handful of interesting details. Among those details is that the twelve-cog cassette will have a 10 to 51-tooth spread, beating you-know-who by one tooth and taking dinner plate-sized large cogs to new, er, diameters. And much like how SRAM had to develop a new freehub body design for their own 10 to 42-tooth block (and, later, their 12-speed Eagle drivetrain), rumors have Shimano also employing a new freehub, and using a smaller version of their Centerlock threaded lockring to attach the cassette. Also, news that many won't welcome, there could actually be a few different 12-speed freehubs from Shimano to suit different setups.
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All that booth space and not a single 12-speed mountain bike drivetrain to be seen... yet.
Expect a new 12-speed derailleur and chain to go along with all of the above, of course, as well as a fresh, single-ring XTR crankset; all likely finished in that classy gray color that their high-end drivetrains always wear. Shimano is also said to be releasing a new, four-piston XTR brake that would go up against SRAM's Guide Ultimate stoppers.
Shimano is not a company who teases, or even hints, as to what's in the pipeline, so it was no surprise to me when my inquiries were met with mostly cold stares at their sprawling Eurobike booth. Joe Lawwill, Shimano's Mountain Bike Marketing Specialist, did have this to say, though: ''Shimano is constantly working on new products. However, Shimano does not comment on any products in development, or any rumors or innuendo - whether true or not.''
Yes, all of the above is hearsay and dirty drivetrain innuendo, but I'd also be willing to bet both of my thumbs that we'll see most, or maybe all, of the rumors to be proven true when the Japanese giant does decide to release the information.
Yes, all of the above is hearsay and dirty drivetrain innuendo, but I'd also be willing to bet both of my thumbs that we'll see most, or maybe all, of the rumors to be proven true when the Japanese giant does decide to release the information.
Eleven cogs? Pfft, the next XTR group will turn it up to twelve. I think. Probably.
Chance of this rumor becoming fact: 90%
The Return of Marzocchi's Range
Fox Racing Shox and Marzocchi shared floor space inside Messe Friedrichshafen, as you'd expect given that the former owns the latter. But while Fox's section of the booth was full of the latest suspension goodies (but not their new, four-way adjustable fork damper that I spotted at Crankworx), the Italians only had a handful of last year's models, as well as a Marzocchi-branded Transfer dropper post, hanging on the wall for people to see. Word is that will change in the near future, however, with Fox planning to lift the Italian name back up into the front of everyone's minds.
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You don't need to be Nostradamus to know that Marzocchi will have a larger presence in the near future.
That's not exactly a surprise, though, as it's not like Fox picked up Marzocchi just to let the name fade away. But rather than just a few revised, low-end models, rumors have Marzocchi soon debuting an entirely new range of suspension offerings. If or when it does happen, I suspect that they'll be focused on original equipment rather than aftermarket sales. And, because nothing says ''come back'' like a steel stanchioned tubed fork, they'll hopefully have something nicer than just entry-level products. If you think about it, all these aftermarket coil conversion kits coming out are a sign that many riders are happy to move away from air-sprung suspension, and wouldn't it make sense to see Marzocchi's new forks answer that demand while Fox stays with air?
Chance of this rumor becoming fact: 70%
Devinci's Return to Downhill Racing
It wasn't that long ago that Devinci was a serious presence on the World Cup downhill circuit, with wins and overall titles coming from the late, great Stevie Smith, and some solid results from his teammate, Mark Wallace. But then, as we all know, tragedy took Smith far too early, and Devinci switched their efforts from downhill to the Enduro World Series. To be fair, the team has had some EWS placings worth being proud of, including a win from Damien Oton. But the EWS isn't World Cup downhilling, and a successful World Cup campaign sells far more than just downhill bikes, with eight-inch-travel sleds being the pig in the window of the mountain bike butcher shop.
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The Wilson is an out-and-out race bike, and I'm betting that they'll have some top-20 riders on the World Cup downhill circuit next season.
I'm not just talking out my ass here, either, as more than a few insiders have mentioned Devinci's return to the World Cup scene. With what riders, I'm not sure, but it would just feel right to see Wilsons being raced against the clock again.
Chance of this rumor becoming fact: 80%
Santa Cruz Has an eMTB in the Works
I don't have any faith in this one being true, but hey, it's fun to speculate. The crew at Santa Cruz vehemently denies any eMTB plans, but there's a tiny smidge of chance that it could happen down the road. Wait, at least hear me out before you accuse me of being a looney heretic for saying that Santa Cruz, arguably the "coolest" company in the game, might jump on the battery-powered bandwagon.
The most telling sign of the end times for me is that Santa Cruz has been owned by Dutch company Pon Holdings since 2015, and battery-powered transportation is a large part of Pon's portfolio. The Dutch conglomerate already owns a number of other cycling brands, including those who have their hands deep in the ebike pie, so it's pretty obvious to see where the tech would come from.
It's no secret that eMTBs are the current cash cow that companies are pushing, and this is especially true in Europe where Santa Cruz doesn't have the same foothold that they do in North America. On the flip side, Pon Holdings is known to be a hands-off type of dark overlord, so it's by no means a sure thing.
It's no secret that eMTBs are the current cash cow that companies are pushing, and this is especially true in Europe where Santa Cruz doesn't have the same foothold that they do in North America. On the flip side, Pon Holdings is known to be a hands-off type of dark overlord, so it's by no means a sure thing.
The new Nomad's appearance was divisive, but just imagine the comment section if it had a motor and battery bolted to it.
For their part, Santa Cruz denies that they'll be joining the battery brigade anytime soon. ''E-hostilities aside, our best bikes represent a convergence of passion and differentiation,'' Don Palermini, North American Marketing Manager at Santa Cruz, explained when I posed the eMTB question to him. ''I'm not sure we can deliver on that right now, so we're not working on one. That doesn't mean never, but we're not willing to spend the financial and social capital on a 'me too' product.''
So that's that, at least for now, I guess.
Chance of this rumor becoming fact: 20%
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I'm not super fit/strong and run a 1x11-34T-11/42 and have no issues.
In these two years, i've done say 200 or 180ish rides (about half and half per year), each with between 800 and 100 m of climbing on average, 2016 was completed with 105 rides and almos 107.000 verticals per Strava (so lop off ~20 %). I killed the 42T about a month ago due to the teeth getting used up on the non-drive-side and creating a nice ramp, with the tops folding over a bit.
I did successfully prolong the life of the cassette by bending the teeth back (it works now, the chain jumped a bit with the teeth folded over), but it's on it's last legs.
I want to go Eagle just to have an aluminium chainring that rarely gets used and to have a proper bailout gear on hold if needed. And it is needed, at least 10 times a year, if not more.
As for the wolf-tooth replacement, a GX cassette, though heavier, is about the same as their 42T cog and you get a whole new cassette. I'm going that route if i'm not going GX Eagle (it's sooooooooo temptig).
Anywho, as for the new freehub design, WHY?? WHY GOD OH WHY??
The XD driver is an open standard, why not use it? Sram used the Shimano freehub design and everybody was happy. The XD transition was/is a chore with incompatible parts, but it brought something to the table, the use of the same tool and a wider range. Why does Shimano have to rethink it again, when we have something which works?
So if you consider myself as a luddite you are mistaken. You are being played by A- old school of pedalling and B planned, progressive one step at a time pseudo innovation.
So if back in 2012 I told you 11sp is bs, you'd tell me that you heardit about 7sp, 8sp, 9sp, 10sp, and I would tell you: hah maybe 12sp 10-50 and people would tell me that I am exaggerating. So please remember this: I tell you now that there will be for sure 54 - possibly 56t cassette expanders and there willbe people just like you saying: it's best. And quoting some huge mileage from their Strava. Well if you do such mileage, then it just doesn't speak good for you, since my brother in law, Peter Sagans Team mate, rarely exceeds 25h riding a week. On road bike. So well it just means you do a lot of mediocre effort. If you do more than 10h a week you should be fkng flying on 11-36t cassette. If I had so much riding time on my hands I'd be on EWS start lists and in Swedish top 5 in Enduro.
I'm headed out to ride my 11-spd bike on a 'mediocre' Colorado ride. Have a good evening.
from CO, with love.
PS: Granted, probably only an issue if you race.
> The XD driver is an open standard, why not use it?
This. I appreciate Shimano's many contributions to cycling, but if there's not a *very* compelling reason to add another standard, it just looks like arrogance. And it's not like it's the first time. "We hate front derailleurs." "No, actually, you love them because our 5-year product plan says you do. Have some overpriced electronics."
General idea is bollocks, fine gravel fireroad at mellow grade is one thing, if gravel gets coarse it gets harder, add more gradient and you get screwed in a matter of 10 minutes and if it's dry, spinning fast doesn't help since your rear wheel spins out all the time. Crappy old cobble stone road in the mountains? Maybe one made of limestone? In mild rain? Maybe old fireroad with patches of mud? Singletrack climbing, everything goes there. Steep gradient on loam, no probs, greasy mud - oh sht. In my hometown in Poland there's one mountain with 300 v.m climb and another with 700 v.m. Fireroad to the lower one is steeper. You get more tired on top of it than on the another. Now they made a trail center kind of climb there. You arrive fresh as a baby to the top as mellow gradient is broken with flat and even few slightly down sloping sections so your heart rate goes down often.
What is universal though, at least for me (and couple of people I know) is that the moment I ride at hiking pace, I see no point in continuing. Especially on a long ride. It is painful, boring and inefficient. I may try to clean a climb without dismounting as a form of challenge, but I would never do it on biking holiday having some sweet descends ahead as I prefer to save energy for the most fun part. I ditched the rear mech and stopped spinning like a roadie after a 65+ year old man overtook me on a climb, running up. It's a real sory, I ordered 10sp drivetrain within a week. 2 years later my body was perfectly adapted to low cadence.
?... They're more places to ride than Exeter... Riding in Wales now this week.
"...since my brother in law, Peter Sagans Team mate..."
WELP, THAT SETTLES IT!
Agreed. I've got three seasons on my X01 and a few thousand miles with no issues. All I do is change my chain when it needs it. Most flawless drivertrain I've ever used.
A cooler brand IMO is Transition or Kona.
When Santa Cruz first brought the Blur to market, that was the start of my SC fandom. Even through their over-worked inside reps, poor communication, poor stock levels, and long lead times, I remained a bit of a fan boy--I don't know why. But in the same way that Yeti has put me completely off their brand, Santa Cruz is starting to wane in my view of their company. Great bikes, but riding one these days just means that you have more than a Trek store to choose from in your town. It's become the go-to brand for the casual rider that wants the 'hot bike' right now. I say this from the perspective of having sold them for the last 5 years.. (and of course that only applies to a part of their customer base).
At the end of the day it's the rider, not the bike, that earns the credit, absolutely. But damn, I do love me some Konas and some Transitions. Both companies are full of awesome people, and both make bikes that rip here in the PNW. Can't say enough about both of those companies willingness to bend over backward to make sure a customer gets to keep riding their bike.
@gemma8788 You make a great point man. It's hard to grow your customer base so much in recent years and for them to all remain chill. At the end of the day I'm sure SC would like that all the people that ride their bikes be cool folks, but I suppose that is out of their hands once you cross a certain number of sales per year. That's a really valid point.
IMO they've always made killer bikes and I definitely prefer them over other designs such as FSR, DW Link, Split Pivot, etc. I also like the fact that they don't change their models every year like most other brands do.
On top of the killer bikes, their warranty support is amazing. You pay for it up front when you buy the bike, but it is amazing.
Want to know about cool? I know all about cool, man. I am cool.
Chill.
That being said, I won't be buying a new one. Their component spec per dollar is too low. They are really outfitting their mid and low range bikes with some crap components these days. Yes, it gets the bike out the door, but you are starting out at a huge deficit.
I'll be purchasing a new ride in the next 12 months and you can bet it will likely be Transition (Sentinel? Smuggler? I can't decide!). They really have a fantastic pricing model and spec even their lowest end (if you can call 3k low end) with good kit. They get my vote for coolest.
As for SC. Huge snob/dentist factor going on there. Similar to Cannondale IMHO.
So did Enve...
FYI Santa Cruz already has an e-bike out for a few years now, krankedbikes.com
I like how going over the recommended fork travel by 10mm or reducing the travel on a dual crown voids warranties, yet strapping 15+lbs to a frame is perfectly legit.
Certainly made me re-consider when I am going to be purchasing a new bike.
Call me crazy, but after a huge emotional loss like with Stevie's passing, wouldn't you maybe take a slight financial hit a bit but continue to support his team mate and the DH sport in general?
And why is everyone focusing so much on the financial status of what happened? Obviously that was not their highest concern. And rightfully so. Money isn't everything. It's the people that make your company what it is that makes a company great. Who cares if they lost or gained money. They did what they felt they needed to @neubiker:
The "optics" of prioritizing racing and the sale of bikes after a man's death seems the ultimate in bad taste. But again, that was/is for the family and Devinci to decide, not the pinkbike peanut gallery.
After getting thrown out in the cold with the inexplicable disbanding of the Devinci team, it led to a season of terrible results with that not-Canadian brand. Moving on was a big mistake for Mark as a racer and as a person, and for the people at Devinci too.
Most importantly, there is so much economic value in tragedy surrounding extreme adventure sport. Shame not capitalize.
Now I understand.
I'm done responding to pinky, he calls a friend and competitor of Steve disrespectful for his opinion, then triples down on his stupidity of not understanding why people (racers, people who knew Steve and actually know the industry) might think differently. Also, Wallace is 4 years pro. Dude is so out of touch, it's not about capitalizing, it's about keeping Canadian WC DH racing alive and supporting Canadian talent, and racing. Yes, we have the 'inside angle'. deal with it.
It's a ridiculously naive comment towards a complex situation. Try saying it to those who had to make it.
Chance of this rumor becoming fact: 100%
SC never caved to the fatbike trend so there's hope...
Please stop giving your North America readers a heart attack with your own rumors and do some basic research.
I've ridden my fat bike in the summer for shits and giggles, its actually kinda fun and not as slow as youd think.
I'll give my reaction. I will never buy another Santa Cruz if they make eBikes. I'm just one person on the internet, but I own three Santa Cruz right now. In the future, I will never buy a bike from a company that makes eBikes.
I fully expect Santa Cruz to be making eBikes next year. In fact, I bet they make an eBike before they have a proper long travel 29er with on-trend geometry,
And I fully expect to be a grumpy old riding a steel hard tail with 1992 geometry purely out of spite. Hell, I spend as little money with SRAM as possible since they make eBike stuff. It's the one pitiful effyou gesture I can make towards the bike industry that 100% does not care about people who spend money.
Also, they are five years behind SRAM and their quality control is awful now that they moved Production out of Japan
They're not a random Specialized, they're a VPP Specialized.
I.e. Specialized spends 10xx more $ on e-bikes than all other mtb categories combined. Money is the only god. No heritage, just cash for business investors. Make it as cheap as possible, sell as high as possible
Box Components.
Shimano just needs to use XD. It's open source and works well.
Nope. I grease it liberally a couple times a year.
I may be dipping into my kids college fund soon. Hopefully the rumor is true.
But that aside - I hear what you are saying -most of use probably would no even know the difference anyways. Once shimano comes out with a 51 then will box come out with a 53 etc... etc...
also 26 for life
As for a Santa Cruz Ebike. Of course they will offer one no matter what they say. Like Shimano they have no choice to go where the market is heading.
8 speed is obviously the new 12 speed. You know you want it.
[ ] Yes
[ ] When hell freezes over
Lets start with the cons:
-Requires X-dome cassettes
-Requires a new driver if you have a standard one.
Annnnddd that's it.
Pros:
-Much bigger cog bearing area, so less wear over time, especially in muddy conditions
-Puts less axial load on bearings, so they last longer
-Lighter
-Gives much more room for further drive train expansion
-Can go to smaller cogs (10T, 9T)
Bad engineering? Not a chance.
Single piece parts are always lighter and stronger than multi piece parts for a given application.
They may be more expensive at this moment due to increase machining costs, but given the rate labor is rising, that may not be true for long.
Plus they wear slower, and wear your hub slower than multi piece parts. Over a few years, cost wise you come out at least even, with better performance.
You drunk too much SRAM cool-aid. Their design was half baked, and will never be adopted for mass market (99% of bikes out there).
As for the mass market... well, SRAM does currently spec more than half of the OEM builds with drivetrains, so I'd call that pretty well adopted. Maybe the idea is not as half-baked as you would assume.
My problem is that 11-42 is all I will ever need and 10speed with expander covers all of my gear ratio change expectations. So I am looking forward to spend well those last 5 years of drivetrain that makes sense. Unless someone will start One Down components...
Example: They sent a guy to work at a shop on the North Shore, and when he saw the barrel full of smashed derailleurs they started working on Saint.
And to the guy who's impressed that SRAM have three 1x drop bar groups to Shimanos zero - how many Grand Tours has SRAM won Vs Shimano, and which is the bigger deal do you think?
In theory, the SRAM Red electronic shifting for road bikes is better than the Di2 Ultegra on my bike.
Every time I build a custom bike some of my parts are dated before I've even put a pedal stroke down. X.0 Type 2 and X.0 Trail brakes last time, Shimano 12 speed this time.
Its not the cost to develop either system that is prohibitive to Shimano its the cost of the lost repair replacement sales that is prohibitive. They know the majority of their Alfine and Nexas hubs go years without maintenance, not even chains needing regular replacement. Its the best system we'll never see.
Okay haters, when was the last time Shimano was the first to market with anything? Pretty sure it was hollow forged cranks some two (?) decades ago. They may make the reliable baseline, but they are never breaking new ground.