Boutique Metal Bikes Will Continue to Grow in Popularity and Refinement Not exactly a big reach on this one, and definitely tinted by some personal bias, but I do think this is a trend worth highlighting. After the initial steel days at the beginning of our sport, there have been a few phases of carbon and aluminum bikes representing the "high-end" of mountain biking. Though carbon has tended to win out in the long run, I think certain developments in CNC milling and additive manufacturing are giving aluminum and steel bikes a huge leg up in their repeatability, elegance, and economy of scale. Not to mention the fact that designers have fully wrapped their heads around the ways of the metal, achieving excellent stiffness and ride feel qualities when it's designed for.
While the boutique certainly draws attention and will grow within the market, it's the more budget-minded alloy bikes like the Stumpjumper Evo Alloy, Jeffsy Core 2, and many more that are leading the vanguard here. I only add that to mitigate some of the mysticism here, as in the end many bikes are quite stellar these days - regardless of frame material. Perhaps the braver prediction is saying we'll see some novel frame material emerge from the ether, but with sintered titanium lugs, foundry-cast aluminum, and even wood out there, that might not even be too far fetched.
Chassis Stiffness Add-Ons Become More Common This isn't necessarily one that I'm rooting for - we already have enough things to mess with on our complicated toys - but I do think a lot of frame designs allow for some sort of bolt-in brace modifications. There are two recent takes on this that come to mind, from Commencal and Pole. Commencal's design was a simple thick or thin bolt-in seatstay brace, featured on the V5 Supreme DH bike. Pole took things a bit more internal, opting to tune stiffness via keyed axles in the frame's linkage. This is still fairly new as an aftermarket option, though it's worth noting that development mules have been utilizing adaptable stiffness for some time now, such as the case with this
Norco prototype.
As to whether we need this level of finesse on the consumer end of things is up for debate, but I imagine there will be a few takes on the idea in the coming solar cycle. I'll propose something along these lines in a poll soon, as I'm curious what that narrow cross-section of the market thinks about the potential cost-benefit of adding this kind of adjustment to a frame.
Shimano Goes Wireless There's plenty of evidence to support this, though none of it specifically points to 2024 being the year of actualization. I just figure the other big drivetrain manufacturer is approaching completion on what feels like a guaranteed product at this point. It's not as if they've gone years without any sort of update, it's just their 12-speed groups that have remain unchanged. With the release of the Cues system, Linkglide, and the e-bike only Di2 systems, the Japanese firm has remained plenty busy over the past few years. That said I do really want to see what they may or may not be working on.
Over the past decade or so, Shimano has proved just how patient they are with bringing product to market, namely in the release of their 12-speed group years after competitors had made a splash. I won't pretend to understand the granular economics behind that, but I'd assume there was some careful thought in addition to the slower pace of progress. As a century-old company, I think their relationship to short-term market changes is more measured; I'd be lying if I weren't chomping at the bit myself, but I'm about a quarter their age, so call it the folly of youth.
The funny and somewhat ridiculous thing is that (from a no-nonsense engineering perspective) there are practically no tangible real-life advantages to carbon over aluminium as a mtb frame material.
The (mainstream) bike industry at this point pretty much exclusively uses carbon as a buzzword-driven marketing strategy, in an effort to gaslight consumers into paying more for their bike. Because for some reason that goes beyond the limits of my understanding, people are willing to pay a lot more as soon as they read the word "carbon".
Carbon Frames are very easily repeatable and a Mold Lasts a very long time.
Could be A&J but They often Smooth their welds.
TL;DR: I happily ride metal frames, see no reason for me to shift to carbon at this point but understand how they could be interesting.
Modern frames are typically fatigue tested to 150.000 - 200.000 load cycles without showing significant decrease in stiffness or strength. In real world terms that translates roughly to 10 full-gas laps of a world cup dh track, every single day, for over 5 years straight. If you don't plan to keep the same frame for like 20 years, you simply do not need to worry about fatigue.
Well said, and appreciated.
Side note, I have the good fortune of having a raw alu bike hanging next to my carbon bike....#blessed
Alloy bikes are also over priced... but here we are.
Steel is real heavy and frankly the flex you get out of it isn’t worth the weight.
I actually had a crooked carbon frame. Old school Tallboy. Bought it new but it was a super cheap end of year deal.
The rear triangle didn’t line up with the lower linkage. I was able to add a thin shim, and it was better.
But every time I let go of the bars, it would pull left.
Santa Cruz replaced the frame for a (different) linkage pivot bolt that bent in the insert.
Free frame, 6 years later!
The bike overall did not feel right to ride but I couldn't convince the dealer that something was wrong with it for months, only after finding an LBS with some good quality control tools and measuring the frame up and getting their opinion, messaging SC directly I was given a new swingarm, which well did not fix the problem, the rear triangle was still crooked in the linkage.
I wonder what is the manufacturing flaw which can make a carbon frame crooked, with alu it's easy as it's all up to the welder to line up the bits and pieces properly in the welding jig, I'd imagine with carbon the risk is a lot lower becuase the molding process should be pretty consistent. Uneven layup of fibers which causes one side of the frame to "shrink" more maybe?
Wow that sounds so similar! Actually, your’s was worse.
I used to say I got a “second” frame- SC throws them in another bin for misfit toys, but not the one labeled “trash”.
My guess is that the jig is what it is, and it’s the result of human error through inconsistent layup. I’ve seen cutaways of some carbon frames that were plain ugly inside of that hard candy exterior! So once out of the jig..
I don’t believe my frame failure was related to the misalignment. The pivot bolt (axle) that bent in the frame seemed to be a common problem, and lucky for me, my (2015) Tallboy was old enough that SC didn’t have any more rear triangles lying around as a replacement!
I wrote a professional email to SC and they said f*#% it, send him a new carbon cc frame for free!
I used to wonder how much force an insert bonded into carbon could take. Not anymore! I broke every screw extractor I used to get that bent chunk of axle out of that thing, and it never budged..! Easily over 90FtLbs..
So how do I feel about carbon frames? My new Tallboy runs a Trust Message fork (sorry, it got weird..) that is the king of torsional stiffness! Like a DH bike, said Levy..
I found myself flying almost flat through the air one day when I over cooked a berm transition, and was headed to plant myself into the “wall” coming up fast.
The bike stuck, and shot me out of there, better than my last MX race bike could have!
That, plus the SC warranty, I’ll stay on carbon frames for now.
My SC Tallboy did.
I was all about dumping my Tallboy replacement frame/bike for something metal after the build. But that moment in that asphalt(!) berm trail made me realize I still have a racer’s mentality, and the trade off for more compliance may not be for me.
This is referring to the novel long post I wrote about 3 mins ago.
Bring back the stuff we can quickly fix, with whatevers laying around, and go ride!
Way too much time and money lost to warranty claims this year, no sympathy for the industry pushing sh*t we never asked for.
The one exception is really eBikes, evolution is happening.
But what’s left? Probably the only innovation that would be nice to have is in-frame storage..but I’ve purchased 5 bikes without storage since those became mainstream, so I clearly don’t care about it too much. My latest bike is a Kona honzo ST. Hardtail, no storage, no internal cable routing, back to basics.
I have a rational for my 2021 Tallboy w/o in frame storage.
The lower water cage option.. I can’t reach it from the saddle, so that means the bottle becomes storage for things like my windbreaker jacket, which would not fit in frame storage anyway.
Plus it becomes a skid plate for my precious carbon frame.
I went flipping down a canyon on some other bike, and destroyed the under frame cage and bottle, but the frame was untouched.
That being said, my next bike will have both!
Side note, you can also score a Jade X with a Sprindex coil to go with the frame for just another $265 which is super cheap as well.
At the end of the day, you might not have a choice, unless you started stockpiling parts last year.
Mechanical shifting will be around forever. But the lack of Dura Ace or Red in a mechanical option is telling. I just bought a roadie with Dura Ace, and that's the worst thing about it. I miss mechanical shifting.
Shimano going direct mount will be interesting since they will have to force (presumably) a new dropout standard on the industry where as Sram Trojan Horse'd that UDH onto everyone.
Hope you have a solid working steed now at least! If not, find a buddy or family member to go halves on a bike and buy a Kona; they are offering buy one get one free right now!!!
www.konaworld.com
A second major hobby of mine is archery, with modern compound bow also made of either aluminum or carbon. Historically, carbon bows have been more expensive, with the added benefit of lighter weight. All of that changed this year when one of the big bow manufacturers (Mathews) introduced a HEAVILY machined/skeletonized design out of aluminum that is actually better performing and lighter than carbon models on the market. They are also delivering them at 70% of the cost of carbon models from their competitors - partially because they invested heavily in fully-owned 6-axis manufacturing machines.
I have to imagine that there is a great deal that could be done from machining aluminum to make optimal mountain bike frames with exacting flex, vibration, stiffness and overall system weight perspectives. Not to mention, you could readily recycle and reuse the unused portions of aluminum.
Look at a company like RSD which I am pretty sure is just one dude running the whole show. The Wildcat was in the DC field test last year and was quite well received.
I have 3 of his bikes and some big brand bikes and I don’t see myself getting a big brand again unless it’s a smoking deal.
Buying a small brand does require having a fair amount of mechanical ability so they aren’t for everyone.
2) That's not on my bingo card, but I'm not against it.
3) That's obvious to everyone, hopefully it's obvious to Shimano too.
the Best quality mass produced modern alloy frames have to be Merida
It’s probably consumerism and the over-emphasis on racing which most of us aren’t serious about anyway.
Yeah I have a carbon wheelset on my steel MTB and it rides beautifully. But my other steel bike with alu wheels ride quite well too.
1. Buy steel frame.
2. Admire the skinny tubes.
Never change, Pinkbike,
You mean slow to the game with a demonstrably inferior product.
I've been a die-hard XTR rider since 1996 (XTR began in 1991). I'm not waiting anymore. I moved on to SRAM AXS.
Hard to improve on an almost perfect groupset . We all know Shimano don't rush out to release first Gen of most stuff. Plus they had a stock short fall they had to run their factories at 110% of designed capacity to try and catch up supply.
I can say a little birdy has told me some big releases are coming but he wouldn't say what.
I only run SRAM (X01/XX1) but my wife's bike is Shimano and I've demoed some Shimano equiped bikes. It's a great system, and one that doesn't need refinement for the sake of refinement.
As a SRAM fanboy I quickly jumped to AXS and ended up hating it. It was so bulky it smashed everything on trail and after 1200 miles it was sloppy and slow - unacceptable for the price point. I went back to mechanical and realized how well it really works when it's set up correctly.
I'm thankfull that SRAM has left their mechanical systems mostly untouched while they focus on wireless shifting, because I pay less and still get a simple and relaibly performing system - just like Shimano 12spd users.
Not everything needs constant "innovation." IMO most of the stuff coming out of Sram is change for the sake of change, trying to get existing customers to spend their money.